Ravindra BagaleCourses & study guides मराठी Track your progress

31. Forecasting in Excel

31.5 Forecast Sheet: Data › Forecast › Forecast Sheet

Example first. Shraddha Bagale has to send a forecast chart to the operations team in ten minutes. She selects the two columns (dates and orders), chooses Data › Forecast › Forecast Sheet, picks a line chart, sets the end date to 4 October 2026 and selects Create. Excel adds a new sheet with a table of history plus forecast, the lower and upper confidence bounds, and a chart. Every number in that table is a FORECAST.ETS or FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT formula, so it updates with the data. This lesson walks through the dialog, every option and the output.

Forecast Sheet — in 30 seconds

What: Forecast Sheet is a one-dialog tool that builds a forecast worksheet from a date column and a value column: a table with the forecast and confidence bounds (FORECAST.ETS and FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT formulas) and a line or column chart.

Why: It is the fastest way to a forecast chart, with options for start date, confidence level, seasonality, missing points and duplicates, and the result stays live because it is made of formulas.

Tiny example: Select A1:B57, Data › Forecast › Forecast Sheet, Forecast End 4 Oct 2026, Create. The new sheet adds Forecast, Lower Confidence Bound and Upper Confidence Bound columns for 28 Sep to 4 Oct.

First look at the data (before → after):

Forecast Sheet: before and after tables, fictional Blinkit Maharashtra data

Expected result — New sheet: forecast part (approximate)

Date Forecast Lower Upper
Mon 28 Sep ≈ 455 ≈ 447 ≈ 463
Sat 3 Oct ≈ 548 ≈ 540 ≈ 556
Sun 4 Oct ≈ 522 ≈ 514 ≈ 530
Before table and formula as text

Before — Your data

Cell Content
A1:A57 Date (3 Aug to 27 Sep 2026)
B1:B57 Orders
Forecast end 4 Oct 2026

Formula / click path

Data › Forecast › Forecast Sheet
Create Forecast Worksheet: Line or Column chart, Forecast End
Options: Forecast Start, Confidence Interval, Seasonality, Timeline Range, Values Range, Fill Missing Points Using, Aggregate Duplicates Using, Include Forecast Statistics

Do it step by step:

  1. Select one cell in the data (Excel selects both columns) or select A1:B57.
  2. Choose Data › Forecast › Forecast Sheet.
  3. In Create Forecast Worksheet pick the line chart (or column chart) and set Forecast End to 4 October 2026.
  4. Open Options. Set Seasonality to Set Manually: 7, keep Confidence Interval at 95%, and tick Include Forecast Statistics.
  5. Select Create. A new sheet appears in front of the data sheet with the table and the chart.
  6. Click a forecast cell and read its formula: it is FORECAST.ETS with the same ranges, so you can audit it.

Version note

Forecast Sheet is a Windows-only command: Microsoft's page "Create a forecast in Excel for Windows" lists Excel for Microsoft 365, Excel 2024 and Excel 2021 (the command first appeared in Excel 2016). Excel for Mac has the FORECAST.ETS functions but no Forecast Sheet button, as Microsoft's support staff confirm; Mac users build the same columns with the formulas from lessons 31.3 and 31.4 and insert a line chart. Excel for the web has neither the button nor the ETS functions.

Every option (from Microsoft's documentation)

Option What it does Our setting
Forecast End Last date to forecast 4 Oct 2026
Forecast Start First forecast date. A date **before** the end of the history uses only the earlier data ("hindcasting"), so you can compare the forecast with what really happened. Microsoft recommends this for seasonal data. Default (day after the last date)
Confidence Interval Show or hide the lower/upper bounds; 95% by default 95%
Seasonality Detect Automatically, or Set Manually with the pattern length. Microsoft warns against a manual value with fewer than 2 cycles of history; when no significant seasonality is found, the forecast reverts to a linear trend. Set Manually: 7
Timeline Range / Values Range The two input ranges; they must match in size A2:A57 / B2:B57
Fill Missing Points Using Interpolation (weighted average of neighbours, if fewer than 30% are missing) or Zeros Interpolation
Aggregate Duplicates Using Average by default; Median, Count, Sum and others available Average
Include Forecast Statistics Adds a table made with FORECAST.ETS.STAT: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, MASE, SMAPE, MAE, RMSE (lesson 31.4) Ticked

What the new sheet contains

Column Content
Timeline Your dates, then the forecast dates
Values Your history (blank for future dates)
Forecast FORECAST.ETS formulas for the future dates
Lower Confidence Bound / Upper Confidence Bound Forecast minus / plus FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT (only when Confidence Interval is ticked)
Statistics table Only with Include Forecast Statistics

The forecast cells hold formulas of this shape (the exact arguments depend on your options):

=FORECAST.ETS(A58,$B$2:$B$57,$A$2:$A$57,7,1)
=C58-FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT(A58,$B$2:$B$57,$A$2:$A$57,0.95,7,1)

Because they are formulas, adding new days to the source columns (inside the referenced ranges) updates the forecast. If you add rows below the referenced ranges, edit the ranges or create the forecast sheet again. Keeping the source data in an Excel Table helps.

Hindcast: test the tool honestly. Run Forecast Sheet again with Forecast Start = 21 September 2026. Excel then forecasts 21 to 27 September using only the data before 21 September, and you can compare those forecasts with the real orders of that week. Lesson 31.7 does this comparison with MAE and MAPE.

Forecast Sheet or your own formulas? Forecast Sheet is perfect for a quick chart and a first look. For a report that refreshes every week, build the same columns with your own FORECAST.ETS formulas next to the data (lessons 31.3 and 31.4). They are the same formulas, but you control the ranges.

Approximate: Excel's FORECAST.ETS fits its smoothing parameters with its own method, which Microsoft does not publish. These ETS numbers were computed with two other implementations of the same AAA exponential smoothing (LibreOffice Calc 25.2 and Python statsmodels, seasonality 7). They agree with each other within about 2 orders; expect Excel's results to be close to them, not identical.

Microsoft sources (checked 7 October 2026): Create a forecast in Excel for Windows.

Practice task (try it before you open the answer):

  1. You want the forecast to start on 21 September 2026 while the data runs to 27 September. What does Excel do?
  2. Your history has only 10 days of data. Should you set seasonality to 7 manually?
  3. Where do the Lower and Upper Confidence Bound numbers come from?
Answer
  1. It uses only the data before 21 September to forecast from 21 September onward (hindcasting), so you can compare the forecast for 21 to 27 September with the actual orders.
  2. No. 10 days is fewer than 2 weekly cycles, and Microsoft advises against a manual seasonality with less than 2 cycles of history. Collect at least two to three weeks first.
  3. From FORECAST.ETS.CONFINT: the bounds are the forecast minus and plus the confidence half-width.

Ravindra Bagale's Tip

After Forecast Sheet creates its table, click one forecast cell and read the formula aloud. If you can explain it, you can defend the chart; if not, go back to lesson 31.3.