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11. What-If Analysis

11.1 Goal Seek

Goal Seek for break-even with example — in 30 seconds

What: Goal Seek changes one input cell until a formula cell reaches the value you want.

Why: "How many orders do we need to stop losing money?" Goal Seek answers it in seconds, without algebra.

Tiny example: Margin ₹18 per order, fixed cost ₹27,000 a month. Profit is 0 at 1,500 orders.

First look at the data (before → after):

Goal Seek for break-even with example: before and after tables, fictional FreshGo Maharashtra data

Expected result — After Goal Seek

Cell Value
B1 Orders per month 1,500
B2 Margin per order (₹) 18
B3 Fixed cost (₹) 27,000
B4 Profit 0

About this data: Teaching sample for a fictional shop “Maple Bakery Co”. Figures and names (e.g. Rohan Patil) are made up for this lesson on goal seek.

Before table and formula as text

Before — Dark store model (fictional)

Cell Value
B1 Orders per month 1,200
B2 Margin per order (₹) 18
B3 Fixed cost (₹) 27,000
B4 Profit =B1*B2-B3 -5,400

About this data: Demo table only — not real customer or company data. Built to practise goal seek.

Formula / click path

Data › What-If Analysis › Goal Seek…
Set cell: B4 · To value: 0 · By changing cell: B1

Do it step by step:

  1. Type the inputs in B1:B3 and =B1*B2-B3 in B4.
  2. Click Data › What-If Analysis › Goal Seek….
  3. Set cell B4, To value 0, By changing cell B1.
  4. Click OK, then OK again to keep the answer.
  5. Check: B1 shows 1,500 and B4 shows 0.

Goal Seek changes one input until a formula reaches a target value. Behind the scenes it tries value after value – an iteration (पुनरावृत्ती) process – until the result is close enough.

Steps in Excel – break-even orders per day

  1. Data › Forecast › What-If Analysis › Goal Seek…
  2. Set cell: B13 (Profit) › To value: 0 › By changing cell: B2 (Orders per day) › OK.
  3. Goal Seek shows the solution: 506.76 orders/day. Click OK to keep it or Cancel to restore 400.
  4. Round up for the business answer: about 507 orders per day to break even.

Check by hand: margin per order = 320 × 18% − 28 = ₹29.60; per month 30 × 29.60 = ₹888 per daily order; 4,50,000 ÷ 888 = 506.76 ✓.

Another question: at 400 orders/day, what AOV is needed to break even? Set B13 to 0 by changing B3 → about ₹363.89.

Ravindra Bagale's Tip

If you give Goal Seek's By changing cell a cell that contains a formula, Excel gives an error – it must be an input cell (a typed value). Many students make this mistake. And Goal Seek changes only one input – if you need to change two or three inputs together, use Solver. If you don't want to keep the result, don't forget to press Cancel.

Practice task

Using Goal Seek find: the delivery cost per order that makes profit ₹50,000 at 400 orders/day, and the gross margin % needed to break even.

Loading practice tasks...

  1. Monthly rate (Easy): Yearly rate in B3 divided by 12.
  2. Number of months (Easy): Years in B4 times 12.
  3. Monthly EMI (Easy): EMI for loan B2, yearly rate B3, years B4 (show it as a positive number).
  4. EMI rounded (Easy): The EMI from the last task, rounded to 0 decimals.
  5. Total paid (Medium): Total amount paid over the loan.
  6. Total interest (Medium): Total paid minus the loan amount B2, rounded to 0 decimals.
  7. Gap to target (Medium): EMI minus the target EMI in B6, rounded to 0 decimals.
  8. Within target? (Medium): Is the EMI at most B6? (TRUE or FALSE)
  9. Loan that fits the target (Hard): Loan amount whose EMI is exactly B6 (same rate and years), rounded to 0 decimals.
  10. Months needed at target EMI (Hard): Months needed to repay B2 at EMI B6, rounded up to a whole month.

Quick revision cards

Three standalone cards. Each one explains the idea with its own example. Scan the QR to open this lesson.

Revision card 1: What is Goal Seek?
Card 1: What is Goal Seek? · Download PNG
Revision card 2: Tiny example — Goal Seek
Card 2: Tiny example — Goal Seek · Download PNG
Revision card 3: Checklist — Goal Seek
Card 3: Checklist — Goal Seek · Download PNG